Could Germany have won the Air war in 1918?

Could the Allied Camels, Se5As, Dolphins and Snipes held out agaist the Fkk D7 and the new Fkk monoplane if the war had continued much longer?
the Camel was basically becoming obselete by 1918, slow and a pilot killer to cadets (though a beautiful killer in a veterans hands). The snipe wasn't out in numbers by November 1918, could the air war had turned, even though the German air force was small and failing.

[stephen]

I think not. The Germans certainly produced excellent aircraft, but they could not produce enough of them in time. And they permitted their best pilots to be lost in combat rather than using their experience to train others. These two factors put Germany's air service in a downward spiral from late 1916 on - despite their excellence in aircraft design and superior organizational efforts. By 1918, the damage had been done.

[Volker_Nemsch]

Hello Phil!

In my opinion Germany had no chance to win the air-war in 1919/1920.

1.)
Many raw materials (escpecially for engines) were hard to get even in the second half of 1918.

2.)
There was a growing problem concerning spareparts. Some German pilots described how they and their mechanics cannibalized shot down own and enemy aircraft for aircraft equipment.

3.)
The German airforce would have been totally outnumbered by the additionally aircraft production in the United States.

4.)
You can´t win a war in the air when the army has no chance to held their positions on the frontline (Jasta 55, 20.Sept.1918).

5.)
There was a constant lack of petrol and oil. The Germans tried to replace the castor oil in rotary engines by some synthetic oil, without much success (engine troubles on hot summer days).

6.)
The RAF just received the new Handley Page V/1500 and the Vickers Vimy for long range bombing missions. The RAF surely would have tried to destroy the German aircraft industry.

Just 6 of many reasons!

Volker Nemsch

The quality of German aircraft slated for 1919 was remarkable. It is interesting to speculate how many years of aircraft development would have been shaved off had the war continued for another year, but that cost would have been paid in young lives. The failure of the Dragonfly radial engine, a single design basket into which British manufacturers had virtually put all of their eggs for 1919, would have been a serious problem in the early part of the year at least. However, sheer quantity of even inferior aircraft would have ultimately overwhelmed the Germans. The Americans would have produced large numbers of admittedly obsolete aircraft. I'm reminded of the Sherman tank in WW2; although the "Zippo" was very inferior to German armour, and huge numbers of them were destroyed as a result, they just kept coming. Production wins.

Phil; There is a book that deals somewhat with your question. The title is "Bloody April, Black September". The "Black" part is September 1918, two months before the end of the war. According to it the German air service was shooting down allied aircraft in record numbers. Whether this level of performance could have been sustained, given the Germans lack of everything, is highly doubtful. If it could have been sustained, then there is a real possibility that Germany could have won the airwar. Let me hasten to say however, given the abilities of aircraft during that period, such a victory would not have led to a German victory. Having said all, this I would like to raise an intriguing possibility. Under such circumstances, a negotiated peace would not only have been possible, but the most likely outcome.

I meant to say " a most likely outcome.

[Graeme]

Tony

The relevant point is that the German aerial success of September 1918 was not continued into October and November.

While it was possible for the RAF, USAS etc to replace their losses (both men and material) with relative ease, as Volker has already pointed out, German production was in a less fortunate position. Sooner or later, the German air force would have run out of pilots, petrol, oil, aeroplanes and airfields - but not necessarily in that order.

Graeme

[Dan_San_Abbott]

Gentlemen:
The materiel situation in Germany had reached crisis proportion in 1918. while aircraft production was given priority second only to submarine production, it was not enough. The German aircraft industry was unable to meet the production goals for the second half of 1917 and never was able to achieve the production goals of 1918 for airframes, engines and aircraft fuels. There were shortage in productiom of coal needed to make steel and to produce electricity to make aluminum, shortages of linen, cotton and wool. The cotton was needed for the manufacture of aircraft dopes.
The shortages of aircraft fuel would have been rpartly rectified in 1919 with the reestablishment of the Rumanian oil fields in Polesti. The pilot training program was grossly deficit to meet the needs of increasing the size of the Allied Air Forces of 1919 of which the USAS wold of had 150 plus squdarons in service in France by mid year. The RAF would added 60 plus squadrons, mostly bombers, Handley Page V1500s, Vicker Vimys and DeH10s bombing the German industrial rear aeras as far as Berlin. Worse of all was the critical situation with the production of FOOD.
The Luftstreitkräfte did not loose the airwar in 1918, they fought valiantly right up to the last minute, but had the war continued they would have been overwelm by sheer force of numbers in 1919. The RAF would have had some serious problems in fighter production because oif the fiasco of the Dragonfly engine,the performance of the Sopwith 7F1 Snipe with the 230 hp Bentley BR2 rotary was no better than the Sopwith1F1Camel. However, that problem would have been overcome with 300 hp Hisso in the Martinsyde F-4 which would have replaced the S.E.5a in the RAF fighter squadrons.
The Luftsreitkräfte would of had Fok. D.VII with the 250Ps BMWIV, the Pfalz D.XV and in limited numbers, the all metal Junkers D.I in Jasta service.
I think the Jasta would have been increased in size to 15-16 machines maybe 18 without increasing the number of Jasta from their current strength of 90 units. They would have established a permanent groupings of Jastas and Schlastas, maybe 16 Jagdgeschwadern and 12 schlactgeschwadern, each of 4 units. But I don't think they would have been able to do enough, to ever be able to win the air war. They would have lacked the numbers and the quality of equipment. The shortages that Germany faced were too severe to be resolved even with the resources available from Russia.
Blue skies,
Dan-San Abbott

[Barrett]

1918 = 1945.

Severe shortages of fuel, materials, and experienced aircrew against virtually unlimited allied resources.

Two points:
1) Golo Mann, in his history of the German nation since 1815, claimed that the German war economy, had it not "re-organized" in time, would have collapsed in 1916...
2) Tony, please keep in mind that the German success of September, 1918, was, in the main, against the Americans, who still lacked the experience needed for air combat...
Another conjecture? Had the Germans kept their monarchy, would WW2 have been averted? (My professor in Vienna, who came to America to fight Hitler, thought that it would have)...