Quote:
Originally Posted by Taz
Neil, Alex, Pete- As an intellectual exercise, what would have happened in WWI if the US had remained neutral? There was adequate reason to remain so with a large German population and large numbers of Irish who hated the English with a passion. The War of 1812 was still remembered and was not much more distant than WWI is today. There was a large affinity for the French, but that could have been ignored. Manpower was being drained rapidly on the Continent and, as already mentioned, Australian, and likely other Commonwealth nations, recruitment had fallen off as the casualty rates and horrors of trench warfare became known. French and English draftee numbers were falling off as only those who came of age had not already been inducted.
Most of the gasoline and a large amount of raw materials was supplied by America. If not for the British naval blockade, America could have gotten rich supplying both sides by remaining neutral. As it was the war was the beginning of the end of Great Britain as a world power because nearly a whole generation of poets, engineers, philosophers, leaders, inventors and workers were lost in the trenches or elsewhere. WWII would finish the job.
Would the war have carried on until 1919 or 1920 without the influx of men and material beginning in 1917? No statistically significant number of Americans really fought until Spring/Summer 1918, but the flow of raw materials, gasoline and other products surged in 1917. So what do you think? How much longer would the war have lasted?
Taz
Terry Phillips
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Terry;
Interesting question... would the Kaiserschlact have happened if the US had not entered the war? One wonders... 50+ fresh divisions? I think a version of it probably would as Ludendorff was itching to use them in a major offensive. probably the outcomes would have been similar (or even worse for the Germans, given the Fifth Army's defences may have been better developed if the offensive was in late April or May...).
The war might have dragged into 1919 and beyond for sure. It is likely that the combatants would have been able to draw on the drafts of 1920 - probably a million + new men for the French, British, and Germans. I think also if the war had dragged on, there would have been another conscription referendum in Australia and its my belief that it may have been successful this time. If so this would have replenished the Australian battalions and then some.
If the Allies had been able to go on the offensive post-Kaiserschlact, with similar weapons combinations employed at Hamel and Amiens, it is likely that they would have reached the Hindenburg Line by early-mid 1919. Given that Lloyd-George was wanting to replace Haig, and up and coming generals like Macksey and Monash had caught the politicians' imaginations (plus the fact that Haig kept trying to obstruct Foch), it is likely that one of these commanders may have replaced Haig, or if not them, then Rawlinson (who whilst similar to Haig was more flexible in tactical matters than Haig).
With the French (who by 1918 were assessed by the British as having recovered from the mutinies and Chemin De Dames) going on the offensive in 1919 alongside the British, and the Royal Navy's blockade biting harder, crops failing in the East, and increasing political agitation at home, morale for the Germans begins to seriously deteriorate by mid 1919.
Also in mid 1919, Herman Goering, in a rare combat sortie, is shot down in flames by the crew of a DH-9a - two South African second lieutenants on their third combat mission. Meanwhile
Rene Fonck, that scientific accumulator, has chalked up his 138th victory.
In late 1919, the revitalised Commonwealth forces under Monash (okay I'm biased!) attack the Hindenburg Line and after hard fighting, turn its left flank, making the German's position in Northern France untenable and forcing a 'race to the border'. The German Armies structure deteriorates in retreat and the first Commonwealth forces cross into Germany by early 1920. Meanwhile the French break through the Ardennes, forcing the German's northwards.
A successful Socialist uprising in Berlin and other urban centres, funded by the Russians, forces the Kaiser to flee to Holland, Ludendorff commits suicide and a lowly Austrian corporal is bayoneted by a Canadian Sargeant in the last throes of fighting in the Rhineland. By mid 1920, the fighting is over as Germany signs an armistice.
On the Italian Front, the Italian forces reinforced by the newly arrived army of Spain (who declared war on the Triple Alliance in January 1919
), pushed northwards driving the Austrians out of Italy. Following a decimating defeat near the Italian Border, the Austrians sue for peace. Following the Austrian collapse, a revolution in Turkey ousts the Young Turks and the Sultan and they are replaced by a Governmment of National Unity lead by Ataturk. He pulls all Turkish troops back to the homeland and declares a unilateral ceasefire on all fronts.
The peace conference is another thread in itself...