Quote:
Originally Posted by mustang
Conscriptiom in Australia during WW1 was twice rejected by referendum,even the majority of front line combat troops opposing it. In any event, there would not have been a big reserve of manpower in a country with a population at that time of less than 5 million that already had suffered about 330,000 casualities.
Mustang
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A referendum late 1918-early 1919 may have had a different result, given the closeness of results of the two previous referenda. The depletion of the Australian battalions may have led to a different vote from the soldiers themselves, particularly if it was known fighting would continue. Without some input of fresh troops, the Australian battalions, given their casualty rates would have ceased to be functional by early 1919. In light of that, conscription may have been seen as the lesser of two evils by the men, with a different vote outcome from them as a result.
A base of available men varied from state to state and region to region. Country Victoria was certainly depleted. The urban areas less so. It is likely that a conscription draft could have brought the battalions as they existed, to full strength. Also the conclusion of the war in the Middle East by 1918, woud have allowed the transfer of the experienced troops from that theatre to be transfered to the Western Front. However, the effectiveness of repeated drafts would have declined because as you say, the long term reserves of manpower just werent there.
Opposition to conscription on the home front, could have been overcome, given the divisions in the anti-conscription groups outside of the referendum. By 1918, many of the Anti-war Labour supporters and members were out of power on a local level in a lot of regional centres (usually due to local issues), depriving them of an organisational base that was used effectively during the previous referenda. This may have effected the outcome in a number of regional/rural areas, particularly in Victoria.
Of course the point is moot, given the whole thing is speculative, however, given that margins were narrow for the two previous referenda, it is possible that some changing factors to the forces contesting the referendum may have led to a narrow victory for the Yes case.
Cheers
Neil