WW1 & The Spanish Flu?

[Elfen]

One of the more interesting discussions I've at the NYC's Mad Scientists Group was the affect of disease and war. Most notably one of the arguements was that of the Spanish Flu putting an end to WW1.

The claim made by one of the other members of the group was the end of WW1 was caused by the Spanish Flu killing off more soldiers than actual battles from Late April/1918 - Nov./1918. The other claim made by the same member was if it was not for this epidemic striking Europe at the time, WW1 would have lasted for several more years and the outcome much more different.

I'm more of a WW1 Avaition freak than a WW1 Statician, so this strange 'fact' (for a proper choice of words) of the war eludes me. What's your ideas on this?

[JG1Schorner]

It was a contributing factor, but not "THE" cause. IMHO the British blockade and America's entry into the war were probably more significant. Germany lost because she wore out before the Allies. Since the Spanish flu didn't take sides it wore both sides down equally well.

The British blockade was having a terrible effect on the German home front. American entry into the war forced the 1918 German offensive which drained Germany's last manpower and materiel reserves. With the army worn down and the home front coming apart Germany's loss became inevitable in late 1918. If there was no Spanish flu? Maybe some added months, maybe not, but not added years.

[duckman]

I'm with JG1Schorner on this - Months not years. There was a discussion on this about a year ago - its here if your interested

[Dan_San_Abbott]

Elfen:
The situation in Germany, with or without the "Spanish Flu" was such that Germany was bankrupt militarily, financially and physically. The British blockade had created a situation where Germany could not feed the people, and almost all materiel was in critical shortage. Production schedules of all military hardware could not be met because of shoratage of coke, coal, brass copper, aluminum aircraft dopes and paints and linen fabric. During the winter of 1917-1918 production goals for aircraft and engines were not met for lack of coal to heat the factories. Food shortages also had the same effect. You can not work efficiently if you are hungry and cold!
With the last German Offensive in July 1918, the German Army had shot its bolt. It had to win the then, or it was too late. Had the United states not entered the war, I think Germany would have won in the summer of 1918.*
Blue skies,
Dan-San
*There most likely would not have been WW2.

[duckman]

"Had the United states not entered the war, I think Germany would have won in the summer of 1918."

Well, its a matter of opinion, and you're certainly welcome to hold it Dan-San, but given the fairly trivial US role in stopping the 1918 offensives, I'm not certain Germany would have achieved a great deal more by August in the absence of American opposition. The US was more than helpful in stopping the German Offensives, but I think you are assuming that if the US troops hadn't been there, there would have just been a hole in the line. My take is that the Allies had the resources to plug those holes, albeit with difficulty.

The US was certainly a valuable contributor during September - November, and I don't doubt that the war would have continued into 1919 without US help, but as you say, Germany had shot its bolt. I don't think they could have held out for long enough for the full benefits of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk to become apparent (extra raw materials / food / labour).

US participation as a supplier of materials to the Allies is a different story, but I have taken as read that those supplies would have continued through 1917-18 even if the US had remained "neutral".

[Dan_San_Abbott]

Duckman:
The effect of the U.S.Army in the spring of 1918 was negligible and our effect did not come into play until the September with the reduction of the Verdun Salient.
With the Eastern Front victory in the Fall of 1917 and the subsequent transfer of German Divisions to the Western Frontin preparations for the Battle of France in March 1918, the balance of power had shifted to German with more Divisions in line than the French and British Armies combined. This remained so until the summer of 1918 with the influx of American Divisions which during the period were merged into French and British Armies until the American First Army was formed. Without the effect provided by the American Divisions, France and Great Britain were suffering unstainable losses
in casualties KIA, wounded and captured. Only with the influx of over 600000 Americans during this period filled the gap by American Division inserted in the British and French Front to relieve the German pressure. Without these American Divisions, which increased French and British morale.
The Allies without American help would have suffered greater losses as the force size continued to diminish with each Attack by German Armies. The turning point for the German Army was the Second Battle of the Marne at Chateau-Thierry were the U.S.Marines stopped the the Germans at Bois de Belleau. Playing the "if" game, if the Marines were not there, what then?
I 'll stand by my statement, "if the American Armies were not there, Germany would have won the war in the late Summer of 1918. France and Great Britain would have sued for Peace!
Blue skies,
Dan-San

[Immo_Frese]

The "spanish influenza" is a widely underestimated reason for the collapse of Germany in summer 1918. The last month I spend some time in studying the obituaries of the german newspapers of this time frame and I was shocked about the situation. The first time I saw obituaries due to the influenza were dated August 1918. They increased dramatically in September and in early October 3/4 of the german casualties were due to that illness. Not to mention all the civilians... It was most depressing to read all those obits... This experience goes hand in hand with most of the reports given in german "Regimentsgeschichten". From September 1918 on the man power of the Regiments decreased dramatically!

BTW, I really think that the war was lost for Germany when Ludendorff decided to perform "Operation Michael" in Spring 1918.

Immo

[Dan_San_Abbott]

Immo Frese:
In a way I agree with you about "Michael", When the German armies failed to capture Amiens and cut the North/South rail lines and Lines of Cummunications, the loss the war of the war was inevitable. With continued loss of irreplacible personnel in each sucessive battle, the end of the war was amatter of time. The German looses of personnel were countered by the increase of American Divisions arriving at the front almost daily, filling the gaps of French and British losses and in time growing large enough to take over about almost half of the French lines with the American First and Second Armies.
The world-wide flu epidemic was devastating throughout Europe and North America affecting both the military and the civilian populations in all countries and Armies. If it were not for penicillin and other anti-biotics today, we would still see large numbers of deaths from the flu every year.
Merry Christmas,
Dan-San